The two companies that have lingered on my mind since the X Prize Cup have been Rocketplane Global and XCOR Aerospace. I hope that both companies become tremendously successful, but I spend a lot of time wondering if either of the companies can find success.
On the surface, XCOR seems to me to be the most likely company in the new race-to-space to succeed. The things that I see on the surface is that they have a couple rocket planes that actually fly with the rockets, they have developed and patented technologies critical to improving the engines (and others are using the technologies), and they aren't publicly speculating / promising when flights will be available.
XCOR's Xerus should be impressive if they can pull it off. Having built and flown the EZ-Rocket 20+ times and built and flown the next generation, Rocket Racer, it seems that they are evolving and iterating fantasticly.
Rocketplane has all the right people and just dumped the Leer that they've been working on for a couple years. To me, that says that they have no hope - sounds just like a dot-com run by rich kids. On the other hand, they are contracting almost everything out except for the stuff that is truely their core competency.
No matter what happens - those people in those companies are doing some way cool stuff. Good luck to all - yes, I think that it takes some luck to make a successful company.